The Political Geography of the New Deal Realignment

Political geography has long played a prominent role in conceptions of political realignments. In this paper, I apply a spatial analysis to examine the political geography of voting during one of the principal political realignments in American electoral history, the 1928-1936 Democratic realignment. The spatial analysis challenges some of our common conceptions of this realignment. For example, increased support for the Democrats and Al Smith in 1928 was not limited to urban areas, as Smith enjoyed widespread increases in Democratic support in largely rural Western locations. In the 1932 election, unemployment actually impeded shifts toward Franklin Roosevelt and the Democrats in most locales. Changes in voter support during this period were highly localized and subnational. Geographically Weighted Regressions demonstrate that this localized political geography was shaped by extensive geographic variation in how political and demographic factors influenced voting behavior across the United States.